If anybody expects Dubya's $200 million warchest to go easier on Dean then 7-8 piss poor candidates, think again. Whichever Democrat becomes bears the nomination will be the lucky recipient of the biggest shitstorm ever seen in the history of American Politics.
I have read a few articles and blog entries that attempt to poo-poo Iowa's results like they are nothing. Dean has claimed victory because his third place, 18% showing is more then he expected a year ago. Other pundits say that Dean faired poorly because of all the candidates who attacked him. While this may be true, if anybody expects Dubya's $200 million warchest to go easier on Dean then 7-8 piss poor candidates, think again. Whichever Democrat becomes bears the nomination will be the lucky recipient of the biggest shitstorm ever seen in the history of American Politics. If Dean wilts under light pressure in Iowa, he can't win in November.
The Democrats need to win more states in 2004 then they did in 2000. I did some calculations (thanks to the Electoral College calculator on Political State Report), and get this: taking the results from 2000, if Bush wins the same states in 2004, and the Democrats win the same states Gore won in 2000, Bush wins the Electoral College by 60 votes, 299-239. This is a huge problem. The Democrats need to run somebody who will not only win all the states Gore won in 2000, but they need to take 2-3 states away from the Bush camp. This means that a swing state like Ohio or Florida needs to be won. To a candidate Dean, these states are out of reach.
Being a resident of Ohio for 9 months in 2002-03, I can tell you point blank that Dean cannot win in the Buckeye state. I doubt Dean could score 30% of the electorate in Cincinnati, and a big loss there would have to be made up by scoring 65-70% of the electorate in Cleveland. That's just not happening. Ohio has 27 votes. With those lost, Dean needs to win 2-3 states in the South to make up for it. Even if he could do that, that's still not enough because winning back 27 votes still puts Bush on top, 272-266. The Democratic candidate needs to take a big state like Ohio or Florida, plus a couple smaller states in the South or Midwest to win. There is no negotiation, this is the cold, hard truth.
Maybe the Iowa caucus is overrated, but the fact remains that one of the only Midwestern states Gore won in 2000 has rejected Dean. In fact, they did more then simply reject him, they gave Dean the finger and told him to get fucked. Dean would lose Iowa, and the rest of the Midwest, in November. Tonight, unfortunately, only proves that Dean is unelectable.